Sonstiges » CHANCES RELATIVE TO SHOT ATTEMPTS PLAY

DORAL, Fla. -- Match Play champion Jason Day of Australia has withdrawn from the Cadillac Championship because of a thumb injury. Day was making his first start since winning the Match Play Championship in Arizona two weeks ago. He says his left thumb bothered him the last time he played and the pain persisted at Doral. Day says he had an MRI in Miami on Wednesday. The results were negative, but he says the doctor recommended rest. At No. 4 in the world, Day says he will rest for the next couple of weeks. He did not indicate when he might play again. One of the common complaints hurled towards puck possession metrics like Corsi (ie. shot attempts) is that all shot attempts are not of equal value. When it comes to the individual level, clearly, there are differences in shot quality, as some players tend to shoot from closer distances, but when it comes to the team level, with thousands of shot attempts distributed across more than 20 players, it’s difficult to sustain dramatically different shot quality. Nevertheless, there is information to be gleaned by poking around with measures designed to pin down shot quality. Over at War on Ice, they have started using a set definition (involving shot location, whether it’s a rebound or not, or whether the shot comes off the rush) to track scoring chances, which could be a useful comparison and I’ve started comparing the scoring chance data with shot attempt data. The impetus for this comparison was noticing that Nashville Predators winger Colin Wilson was not only near the top of the league in Corsi%, but also best in the league in Scoring Chance%, so I thought there could be some interesting comparisons to be made, particularly at the top and bottom ends of the spectrum. First, the players with the highest percentage of scoring chances relative to shot attempts (minimum 200 shot attempts for) when they are on the ice for 5-on-5 play: SCORING CHANCES RELATIVE TO SHOT ATTEMPTS PLAYERS TEAMS POS. CORSI% SC% RATIO Brooks Laich Washington LW 50.8% 58.1% 1.144 Boone Jenner Columbus C 48.1% 53.6% 1.114 Eric Brewer Anaheim D 46.6% 51.5% 1.105 Eric Fehr Washington C/RW 51.5% 56.9% 1.105 Dan Boyle N.Y. Rangers D 51.7% 57.1% 1.104 Martin St. Louis N.Y. Rangers RW 48.3% 53.0% 1.097 Colin Wilson Nashville LW 58.5% 64.1% 1.096 Calle Jarnkrok Nashville C 52.7% 57.7% 1.095 Nick Foligno Columbus LW 51.0% 55.8% 1.094 Cam Atkinson Columbus RW 48.9% 53.4% 1.092 Mike Hoffman Ottawa LW 51.2% 55.8% 1.090 Anton Volchenkov Nashville D 53.6% 58.4% 1.090 Alex Goligoski Dallas D 52.2% 56.8% 1.088 Erik Condra Ottawa RW 45.8% 49.8% 1.087 Jordan Leopold Columbus D 45.9% 49.8% 1.085 Luke Glendening Detroit C 42.8% 46.4% 1.084 Kevin Hayes N.Y. Rangers C 52.1% 56.4% 1.083 Jay Beagle Washington C 48.2% 52.1% 1.081 Karl Alzner Washington D 50.7% 54.7% 1.079 Nicklas Backstrom Washington C 53.7% 57.9% 1.078 There is ample representation for both Nashville and Washington and Wilson really stands out -- controlling 64.1% of scoring chances when hes on the ice at 5-on-5. Then, the players with the lowest percentage of scoring chances relative to shot attempts (minimum 200 shot attempts for) when they are on the ice for 5-on-5 play: SCORING CHANCES RELATIVE TO SHOT ATTEMPTS PLAYER TEAM POS. CORSI% SC% RATIO Jiri Tlusty Carolina LW 51.1% 46.9% .918 Jack Skille Columbus RW 44.5% 40.8% .917 David Backes St. Louis C 51.0% 46.7% .916 Andrej Sekera Carolina D 51.6% 47.2% .915 Peter Holland Toronto C 42.7% 39.0% .913 Michael Stone Arizona D 48.1% 43.9% .913 Alexander Wennberg Columbus C 42.3% 38.6% .913 Zach Boychuk Carolina LW 49.0% 44.5% .908 David Krejci Boston C 51.7% 46.9% .907 Nicolas Deslauriers Buffalo LW 34.5% 31.2% .904 David Schlemko Dallas D 49.2% 44.2% .898 Tomas Kopecky Florida RW 48.7% 43.7% .897 John Mitchell Colorado C 43.3% 38.8% .896 Andrej Nestrasil Carolina RW 56.4% 50.3% .892 Dwight King Los Angeles LW 53.0% 46.8% .883 Steve Ott St. Louis C 42.2% 37.2% .882 Zack Kassian Vancouver RW 50.0% 43.9% .878 Victor Rask Carolina C 53.6% 47.0% .877 Mason Raymond Calgary LW 43.9% 38.4% .875 Derek MacKenzie Florida C 47.2% 37.4% .792 Looking at the extremes does offer some potential insight -- perhaps the players getting a higher proportion of scoring chances (relative to shot attempts) are able to outperform standard shot-attempt possession measures, whereas those at the bottom might be underperforming those measures. To that end, in the trailers list, comprised of largely lower depth chart players, its interesting to see players the calibre of David Backes and David Krejci. Turning attention to the elements, offensive and defensive, which players have the highest percentage of scoring chances among shot attempts? Of those with at least 200 shot attempts: SCORING CHANCES AS PERCENTAGE OF SHOT ATTEMPTS PLAYER TEAM POS. SCF SAF PCT. Phil Kessel Toronto RW 294 498 59.0% James van Riemsdyk Toronto LW 285 484 58.9% Nikita Kucherov Tampa Bay RW 317 546 58.1% Victor Hedman Tampa Bay D 198 344 57.6% Anton Stralman Tampa Bay D 363 631 57.5% Tyler Bozak Toronto C 268 467 57.4% Lubomir Visnovsky N.Y. Islanders D 261 463 56.4% Tyler Johnson Tampa Bay C 306 544 56.3% Matt Moulson Buffalo LW 199 356 55.9% Ondrej Palat Tampa Bay LW 290 521 55.7% Scott Gomez New Jersey C 114 205 55.6% Matt Martin N.Y. Islanders LW 193 351 55.0% Cal Clutterbuck N.Y. Islanders RW 197 359 54.9% Trevor Daley Dallas D 308 563 54.7% Alex Goligoski Dallas D 374 684 54.7% Adam Pardy Winnipeg D 176 322 54.7% Martin Havlat New Jersey RW 118 216 54.6% Jamie Benn Dallas LW 303 555 54.6% Tyler Seguin Dallas C/RW 328 601 54.6% Thomas Hickey N.Y. Islanders D 313 575 54.4% Its no surprise to see Phil Kessel and James van Riemsdyk at the top, since both seem to generate a good proportion of their shots on rush attempts and they have enough skill to create quality chances, as does the trio of second-year forwards (Nikita Kucherov, Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat) in Tampa Bay or Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin in Dallas. Of course, unheralded defencemen Adam Pardy and Thomas Hickey, as well as Islanders grinders Matt Martin and Cal Clutterbuck are on the list too, but this offers at least some indication that their respective teams are getting quality shot attempts with those players on the ice.dddddddddddd And those on the ice for the lowest percentage of scoring chances compared to shot attempts. Again, minimum 200 shot attempts: SCORING CHANCES RELATIVE TO SHOT ATTEMPTS PLAYER TEAM POS. SCF SAF PCT. Michael Stone Arizona D 242 580 41.7% Eric Nystrom Nashville LW 117 281 41.6% Mark Fayne Edmonton D 203 490 41.4% Jiri Tlusty Carolina LW 166 404 41.1% Nick Spaling Pittsburgh LW 180 439 41.0% Zach Boychuk Carolina LW 117 286 40.9% Victor Rask Carolina C 199 488 40.8% Steve Downie Pittsburgh RW 121 297 40.7% Matt Hendricks Edmonton LW 122 300 40.7% Mason Raymond Calgary LW 84 207 40.6% Brandon Pirri Florida C 89 220 40.5% Tomas Fleischmann Florida LW 135 334 40.4% Taylor Beck Nashville RW 92 228 40.4% Andrej Nestrasil Carolina RW 88 219 40.2% Willie Mitchell Florida D 231 579 39.9% Erik Gudbranson Florida D 171 433 39.5% Dmitry Kulikov Florida D 195 496 39.3% Dylan Olsen Florida D 162 420 38.6% Tomas Kopecky Florida RW 107 289 37.0% Derek MacKenzie Florida C 88 290 30.3% There could be some concern about the recording in Florida, as it appears a lot of their players are generating few scoring chances relative to shot attempts, but they are perennially one of the worst shooting percentage teams in the league, so maybe they earn those low shooting percentages. Now, when it comes to scoring chances allowed, these are the players on the ice for the lowest percentage of scoring chances, relative to shot attempts: SCORING CHANCES RELATIVE TO SHOT ATTEMPTS ALLOWED PLAYER TEAM POS. SCA SAA PCT. Aleksander Barkov Florida C 102 280 36.4% Dan Boyle N.Y. Rangers D 93 243 38.3% Sean Bergenheim Florida LW 98 253 38.7% Taylor Beck Nashville RW 101 260 38.8% Brooks Laich Washington LW 103 262 39.3% Kevin Hayes N.Y. Rangers C 120 303 39.6% Jussi Jokinen Florida LW 132 333 39.6% Barclay Goodrow San Jose LW 99 248 39.9% Calle Jarnkrok Nashville C 126 315 40.0% Eric Nystrom Nashville LW 152 378 40.2% Shea Weber Nashville D 298 738 40.4% Dylan Olsen Florida D 182 450 40.4% Scottie Upshall Florida RW 104 256 40.6% Jimmy Hayes Florida RW 130 320 40.6% Erik Condra Ottawa RW 103 253 40.7% Colin Wilson Nashville LW 151 370 40.8% Anton Volchenkov Nashville D 112 273 41.0% Roman Josi Nashville D 307 748 41.0% Olli Jokinen Nashville D 159 387 41.1% David Jones Calgary RW 162 394 41.1% Nashville and Florida are well-represented on this list of players that suppress scoring chances relative to shot attempts, but also interesting to see rookie forwards like Kevin Hayes and Barclay Goodrow among those allowing a low percentage of scoring chances. SCORING CHANCES RELATIVE TO SHOT ATTEMPTS PLAYER TEAM POS. SCA SAA PCT. Stephane Robidas Toronto D 280 512 54.7% Morgan Rielly Toronto D 347 634 54.7% Pavel Datsyuk Detroit C/LW 154 281 54.8% Tyler Johnson Tampa Bay C 248 451 55.0% Nazem Kadri Toronto C 296 538 55.0% Brad Richardson Vancouver C 229 416 55.0% Peter Holland Toronto C 244 442 55.2% Johnny Boychuk N.Y. Islanders D 212 383 55.4% Josh Manson Anaheim D 130 234 55.6% Tyler Bozak Toronto C 365 649 56.2% Phil Kessel Toronto RW 384 682 56.3% Jason Spezza Dallas C 258 458 56.3% Joffrey Lupul Toronto LW 206 365 56.4% Kyle Okposo N.Y. Islanders RW 297 525 56.6% Cody Franson Toronto D 336 593 56.7% Dion Phaneuf Toronto D 405 710 57.0% Nikita Kucherov Tampa Bay RW 226 393 57.5% David Krejci Boston C 154 266 57.9% James van Riemsdyk Toronto LW 404 691 58.5% Zack Kassian Vancouver RW 125 200 62.5% Also no surprise, there are many Maple Leafs on the list of players that tend to allow a greater proportion of shot attempts to qualify as scoring chances. Its one thing for Torontos top line to play firewagon hockey -- good chances both ways -- but it hurts to have their top defensive pairing giving up a proportionally high percentage of scoring chances relative to shot attempts which, against Toronto, is already a problem area. An important final point: We know the value of shot quantity metrics and how they apply to future results. None of these calculations are remotely all-encompassing measures that cover a player’s contribution, and without knowing sustainability and predictability, their long-term value may not be useful, but – in this moment – they can help add some context to more widely-known possession stats. Theres likely more to be discovered here, but adding some measure of quality ought to help in player evaluation. From Monday night… HEROES Brent Burns – The Sharks defenceman had a goal and an assist in a 3-2 win at Winnipeg. He ranks third in defence scoring, behind Mark Giordano and Kevin Shattenkirk, with 31 points (11 G, 20 A) in 40 games. Joe Pavelski and Logan Couture – Taking on additional burden with Joe Thornton injured, both played more than 22 minutes at Winnipeg and both contributed a pair of assists in the win. Pavelski also had game-best possession stats (17 shot attempts for, 8 against, 68.0%). ZEROES Mathieu Perreault – The Jets forward has been productive after a slow start to the year, but he was locked down by the Sharks, failing to generate a shot attempt, tand taking a high-sticking double minor, while playing more than 18 minutes. LINEUP NEED TO KNOW Julien Brouillette – The Jets have provided a good opportunity to learn the names of lesser-known defencemen and Brouillette is the latest to get a turn on the injury-depleted Winnipeg blueline, with Grant Clitsome taken down by an upper-body injury. The 28-year-old played 9:33 against San Jose Monday, his 11th career NHL game (1 G, 1 A in 10 games for the Capitals last season). Much of the data included comes from www.war-on-ice.com. 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